Financial markets can be influenced by many factors. Today, we want to take a closer look at this using a geopolitical event as an example. The Israeli army has carried out targeted attacks on strategic targets in Iran. The market reacted instantly: energy prices surged, global stock markets dropped significantly, and, in a counter-move, a lot of capital flowed into “safe havens” like gold and the US dollar. But why is that? Let’s take a look together!
📊 How Have Different Asset Classes Reacted Since the Attack?
| Asset Class | Reaction | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ Brent / WTI Oil | +7% to +13% | Supply fears in the Persian Gulf |
| 🪙 Gold | +1.5% daily, up to +5% weekly | Risk aversion, inflation hedge |
| 🌍 MSCI World | Approx. -1% | Global risk aversion |
| 💻 Nasdaq | -1.1% to -1.4% | Tech sensitivity in times of uncertainty |
| 🇺🇸 S&P 500 | -0.9% to -1.3% | Broad risk reduction |
| 💵 US Treasuries (10y) | Yields slightly up | Inflation fears despite safe haven status |
| 💱 US Dollar Index | +0.8% | Classic flight to safety |
🛢️ Commodities: Oil & Gold in Focus
Commodities
Oil (Brent & WTI):
Brent crude rose by over 13% (to over $77/barrel) compared to the previous week. This is due to fears of supply chain disruptions. Over a third of the world’s traded oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Experts are already warning that, if the escalation continues, a price move above $130 is possible.
Gold:
Gold has the reputation of being a crisis currency and lived up to this by rising around 1.5% in a single trading day. Over the course of the week, the price rose to almost $3,400, near its all-time high. In times of crisis, people want to move out of risky investments. The result is a flight from stock markets. Rising energy prices following such events fuel inflation fears, and gold has proven to be very stable in the past, offering investors a refuge.
📉 Stock Markets Under Pressure
Nasdaq:
Tech-heavy US indices like the Nasdaq lost around 1.3% during the trading day. This can be explained by the higher oil prices. For such growth-oriented companies with high cost structures, these prices act like an additional tax.
MSCI World:
Even the widely diversified MSCI World Index fell by about 1%. Especially export-dependent companies based in Europe and Asia rely on stable energy prices.
National European indices such as the DAX also posted significant losses.
💸 Currencies & Bonds: The Flight to Safety
US Dollar:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.8%, marking a two-month high.
Currencies that offer less security, such as the euro, the yen, or currencies from emerging markets, lost investors to the dollar. This investor behavior is typical in geopolitical events of this magnitude.
US Treasuries:
US government bonds are also considered a safe haven during crises, so demand for them increased as expected. Normally, this leads to falling yields. This was briefly the case, but this time we saw an anomaly. Due to rising oil prices and the resulting inflation expectations, the effect reversed, and yields began to rise again. This was particularly notable in 10-year bonds.
🔁 Summary: Classic Crisis Pattern
Market reaction follows the classic crisis pattern:
→ Commodities rise
→ Risk assets (e.g. stocks) fall
→ Capital flows into gold, USD, and government bonds
That’s the first part of this pattern.
Further developments depend on the level of escalation.
If the oil price rises permanently, this could trigger a new wave of inflation, which would in turn affect monetary policy and corporate profits.
This results in a new investor outlook: energy and defense companies benefit, while tech and consumer sectors come under pressure.
🧠 Conclusion
Geopolitical tensions such as this attack have a direct impact on global markets. However, these market reactions can be interpreted immediately and clearly. As an investor, one should not just react to price movements — it’s more important to understand the structural risks behind them.
Despite the terrible background of such a conflict, there are also opportunities. Through a well-thought-out reallocation, e.g., into commodities or defense goods, as well as defensive sectors and inflation-protected assets, it is possible to achieve excellent results even in such situations.